Vehicles Ranked on Expected Recalls

A new data analysis ranks the vehicles likely to be recalled the most and the least, putting the all-electric Porsche Taycan at the top of the list.

Online automotive search engine and research website IseeCars reviewed statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to make the recall forecasts.

German companies, ironically, own both the most recall-prone model and the least recall-prone, according to the projections.

IseeCars put the Taycan at the top of the most-recalls list with a projected 70.7 lifetime recalls, followed by the Tesla Model Y in the No. 2 spot with 66.9 recalls, and Tesla's Model 3, with 60.7 recalls.

The industry median for a vehicle is 3.2 lifetime recalls, says IseeCars, which says the 25 models with the least projected recalls should have fewer than one in a 30-year lifespan.

Models with the fewest projected recalls fall well below that. Leading that list is the MINI Convertible, with a projected 0.2 lifetime recalls. The second least expected recalls spot belongs to the Lexus models ES 300h, RX 450h and NX 300h, all with 0.3 projected recalls.

The rankings are based on NHTSA recall data for 2015 to 2024 models.

“It could be argued that a car company willing to issue and address safety recalls is being more proactive to protect its customers,” said Brauer. “And while that sounds honorable, most consumers would prefer a car not have a recall that needs addressed, thus saving them the time and trouble of visiting a dealership,” said iSeeCars Executive Analyst Karl Brauer in a press release on the rankings.

For some models, remote over-the-air updates, or those done through wireless networks that typically happen overnight, represent most of the expected recalls, making a big difference in terms of the consumer’s level of inconvenience, the company pointed out.

When removing those recall types, it said all four Tesla models in the most-recalls list, for instance, fall out of the ranking. The Taycan, however, remains in the top spot with the same number of projected lifetime recalls.

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